Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz stand to lose the most at the 2025 US Open while Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Ben Shelton can gain the most.
The 2024 US Open final was contested by Sinner and Fritz, and the former ended up winning the hard-court Grand Slam with the result earning him 2,000 points in the ATP Rankings. Fritz, meanwhile, picked up 1,300 for finishing runner-up.
With the ATP using a 52-week rolling, cumulative system, players have to defend those points during the corresponding period so the points players earned at the 2024 US Open will drop ahead of the 2025 tournament and they then have a chance to make up those points again during each round.
So let’s look at the points some of the big-name players are defending at the final major of the year at Flushing Meadows and how it could impact their positions in the ATP Rankings.
Jannik Sinner
As mentioned above, the world No 1 is the defending champion so he has already dropped 2,000 points in the Live Rankings and, as a result, he currently finds himself below Alcaraz in the standings.
Sinner is on 9,490 points (all players have been handed 10 points for appearing in the first round of a major, while Alcaraz sits on 9,550 points.
If the Italian successfully defends his crown in New York, then he will return to 11,480 points and he will stay at No 1, but anything other than a title run will give Alcaraz an opportunity to overtake him.
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Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz was stunned in the second round in 2024 so he will drop 50 points and sits on 9,550 after his 10 points are added.
If Sinner wins the title, then Alcaraz can’t replace him at No 1, but if the Spaniard wins the US Open he is guaranteed to return to No 1 in the official rankings.
A runners-up finish or a semi-final run could also see him regain No 1 spot, but then Sinner needs to lose early in the tournament.
“The past three Grand Slams on hard courts, he won. It’s been unbelievable the tennis he’s bringing on hard courts,” Alcaraz said of Sinner. “So I just look up to him in some way just to be ready if I have to face him somewhere.”
Alexander Zverev
The German is currently third in the rankings, but he has no chance of becoming world No 1 after the tournament, even if he wins the title.
Zverev will drop 400 points after losing in the quarter-final 12 months ago, but looks set to stay at No 3 after the tournament.
Taylor Fritz
World No 4 Fritz reached his maiden Grand Slam final at the US Open in 2024, but lost in three sets against Sinner.
He has dropped 1,300 points and remains at No 4 in the Live Rankings, but there are a few players who could overtake him if he fails to have a deep run in New York.
Jack Draper
The Brit reached his first Slam semi-final last year before losing against Sinner so he will drop 800 points.
Draper has slipped two places to No 7 in the Live Rankings.
Ben Shelton
Shelton is the man on the rise as he is up to a new best of No 5 in the Live Rankings.
The American made an early exit 12 months ago as he lost in the third round, so he has dropped only 100 points.
Novak Djokovic
The 24-time Grand Slam winner was the defending champion in 2024, but he was stunned by Alexei Popyrin in the third round so he will drop 100 points.
Another title run at Flushing Meadows could see him return to No 3 (but that is obviously dependent on how those ahead of him perform).
Francis Tiafoe
The American was the other player to lose in the semi-final last year so he will also drop 800 points and he has dropped out of the top 20 in the Live Rankings, but can obviously make his way back up.
